National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENING... As of 15:00 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 the center of Flossie was located near 15.6, -102.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 14:40:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 14:40:54 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 545 WTPZ41 KNHC 301439 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 Flossie continues to consolidate this morning with GOES-19 infrared imagery showing deep convection bursting over the low-level center. A SSMIS microwave pass from 1117 UTC this morning depicts the system continues to become better organized, with curved banding and potentially an inner core trying to develop. Latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased this advisory to T/3.0. UW-CIMMS objective estimates range from 45 to 53 kt. Given the improving structure and recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt for this advisory. Environmental conditions are favorable for steady to rapid intensification, with low vertical wind shear, plentiful moisture, and warm SSTs. The latest NHC forecast explicitly forecasts rapid intensification over the next 24 hours, and it is noted that some SHIPS guidance shows a 50-65 percent chance of a 55kt increase in the next 48 h. The NHC peak intensity forecast remains on the higher end of the intensity guidance near the HCCA corrected consensus. In about 48-60 hours, environmental conditions become increasingly less favorable along the forecast track, with drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures, which should induce a steady weakening trend. By day 4, Flossie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone as the system will struggle to produce convection within the harsh environment. The initial estimated motion is toward the northwest, or 310/9 kt. A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected throughout the forecast period, as Flossie is steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast near the previous and lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus aids. Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A shift in track to the right of the official forecast could bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain. 2. A tropical storm warning is in effect for a portion of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are expected late today through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 15.6N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 16.5N 103.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 18.2N 106.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 19.2N 108.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 20.0N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 20.9N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 23.0N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 05/1200Z 24.5N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENING... As of 9:00 AM CST Mon Jun 30 the center of Flossie was located near 15.6, -102.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.6W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS....105NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.6W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.1W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.5N 103.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.2N 106.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.2N 108.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.0N 109.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.9N 110.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 23.0N 112.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 24.5N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 102.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/NEPAUL NNNN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 11:41:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 09:26:28 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 11:41:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 09:26:28 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 752 WTPZ31 KNHC 301141 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 600 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 102.1W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to east of Punta San Telmo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 102.1 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...FLOSSIE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 6:00 AM CST Mon Jun 30 the center of Flossie was located near 15.2, -102.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

643
ABPZ20 KNHC 301126
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple of
hundred miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 08:42:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 09:26:28 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 08:42:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 09:26:26 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 08:42:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 08:42:43 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300837 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 A 30/0357 UTC ASCAT-B pass over Flossie showed a sizable area of 30-35 kt winds in the NE quadrant, with 25-30 kt winds wrapping into portions of the SE and NW quadrants. The ASCAT data also indicates that the RMW has contracted to about 40 n mi. SSMIS and GMI microwave passes between 00-03Z were also helpful in diagnosing the position and structure of Flossie. Since the time of the above-mentioned microwave images, GOES satellite imagery indicates that Flossie has started to become better organized, and it appears that the low-level center is likely underneath the northern portion of the central convective area, which has increased in size and contains a large area of cloud tops colder than -80 degrees C. The initial intensity is set to 40 kt due to the improved organization since the time of the ASCAT pass. This estimate is also in line with the latest objective intensity estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT, AiDT and DPRINT, which are running in the 40-45 kt range. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to remain favorable for intensification for at least another 48 h as Flossie moves through an environment of warm water, weak vertical wind shear, and a moist mid-level troposphere. Rapid intensification remains a distinct possibility over the next day or two. The NHC forecast continues to show steady to rapid intensification. The official forecast is near the higher end of the intensity guidance envelope. Beyond 48 h, Flossie should gradually encounter a dry and stable airmass and cross over cooling waters which will lead to steady weakening. The initial motion estimate is toward the northwest, or 315/9 kt. A motion between west-northwest and northwest should continue for the next few days as Flossie moves through a break in the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast is mostly unchanged from the previous official forecast, and lies in between the simple and corrected consensus aids. The latest NHC forecast has necessitated the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the coast of Mexico, as tropical-storm-force wind speed probabilities are in the 40 to 50 percent range for portions of the area. Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A shift in track to the right of the official forecast could bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through mid-week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep terrain. 2. A tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are expected late today through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 15.0N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 15.7N 102.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 19.4N 108.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 20.4N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 22.7N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 05/0600Z 24.9N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 171 FOPZ11 KNHC 300837 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 10(30) X(30) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 8(24) 1(25) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 105W 34 2 19(21) 5(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) MANZANILLO 34 X 14(14) 20(34) 3(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 4 12(16) 3(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 6(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 100W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 48(67) 3(70) X(70) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 2(33) X(33) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 22(32) 1(33) X(33) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO COAST... ...FLOSSIE EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 101.8W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to east of Punta San Telmo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 101.8 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, late today through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO COAST... ...FLOSSIE EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Mon Jun 30 the center of Flossie was located near 15.0, -101.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 081 WTPZ21 KNHC 300836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.8W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS....105NE 15SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.8W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.7N 102.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.4N 108.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.4N 109.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 22.7N 111.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 24.9N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 101.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 05:52:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 03:27:11 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 270 WTPZ31 KNHC 300552 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 1200 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE STARTING TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 101.3W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 101.3 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (14 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area late today through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen