National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 20:42:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 21:22:18 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 20:42:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 20:42:30 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 473 WTPZ41 KNHC 302041 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 Flossie's satellite presentation has continued to improve throughout the day, with convective cold cloud tops near -80C over the low-level center, and well-defined curve banding features. An earlier scatterometer pass around 1629 UTC showed a peak wind of 47 kt, and helped to refine the current tropical-storm-force wind radii. Latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, including a T/3.5 from TAFB. Given the satellite trends, the intensity is set to 55 kt closes to UW-CIMSS ADT and the TAFB Dvorak estimates. The storm is within a favorable environment to continue strengthening, current SSTs are around 29-30C, with low vertical wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the higher end of the guidance envelope and now has a peak intensity of 90 kt, closest to the regional hurricane HAFS models. In about 48 h, environmental conditions become increasingly more hostile, with drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures, which should induce a steady weakening trend. By day 4, Flossie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone as the system will struggle to produce convection within the harsh environment. The initial estimated motion is toward the northwest, or 305/10 kt. A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected throughout the forecast period steered by a mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the left and lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, later today through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 16.2N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 18.8N 108.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 21.0N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 22.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1800Z 24.9N 114.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 124 FOPZ11 KNHC 302040 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 10 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 12 13(25) 3(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) L CARDENAS 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) 42(71) 16(87) X(87) X(87) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 19(48) X(48) X(48) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 24(37) 11(48) X(48) X(48) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 073 WTPZ21 KNHC 302040 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.6W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.6W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.8N 108.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N 111.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.9N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 103.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 074 WTPZ31 KNHC 302040 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 103.6W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 103.6 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwest to west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...FLOSSIE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Mon Jun 30 the center of Flossie was located near 16.2, -103.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 10 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 12 13(25) 3(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) L CARDENAS 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) 42(71) 16(87) X(87) X(87) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 19(48) X(48) X(48) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 24(37) 11(48) X(48) X(48) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY NNNN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 17:43:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 15:21:28 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 17:43:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 15:21:28 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301742 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 1200 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 103.1W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to east of Punta San Telmo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.1 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwest to west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (145 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 12:00 PM CST Mon Jun 30 the center of Flossie was located near 15.9, -103.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple of
hundred miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 769 FOPZ11 KNHC 301531 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 5(31) X(31) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 3(25) X(25) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 12(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 105W 34 6 9(15) 3(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) MANZANILLO 34 3 26(29) 6(35) 3(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 6 5(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 32(38) 36(74) 1(75) X(75) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 16(31) 1(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/NEPAUL

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 14:40:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 15:21:31 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 14:40:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 15:21:31 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 675 WTPZ31 KNHC 301520 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 102.6W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to east of Punta San Telmo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.6 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwest to west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENING... As of 9:00 AM CST Mon Jun 30 the center of Flossie was located near 15.6, -102.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 301512 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.6W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS....105NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.6W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.1W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.5N 103.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.2N 106.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.2N 108.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.0N 109.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.9N 110.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 23.0N 112.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 24.5N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 102.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/NEPAUL

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENING... As of 15:00 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 the center of Flossie was located near 15.6, -102.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.