National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 14:40:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 14:40:56 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 059 FOPZ11 KNHC 011438 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 1 27(28) 57(85) 8(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 20N 110W 50 X 3( 3) 45(48) 15(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 25(25) 13(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 6( 7) 27(34) 8(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 477 WTPZ41 KNHC 011438 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 Flossie is still intensifying, with conventional satellite imagery showing a curved band pattern with cloud tops colder than -80C and a formative eye. In addition, recent microwave overpasses show an eye and eyewall present under the convective overcast. The latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are generally in the 75-85 kt range, and based on current trends the initial intensity is set at 85 kt. The initial motion is 305/9 kt. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 3-4 days as Flossie moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. After that time, the cyclone or its remnants is forecast to turn westward as they become steered more by the low-level flow. The new forecast track, which generally splits the difference between the HCCA corrected consensus and the other consensus models, is a little north of the previous forecast through 72 h and a little south of the previous track after that time. The wind shear and moisture are forecast to be favorable for strengthening as long as Flossie remains over warm water. While the hurricane is starting to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, the intensity guidance suggests it will take about 24 h to reach water cold enough to stop intensification. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for another 24 h of strengthening. After that, Flossie is expected to rapidly weaken, with the system becoming post-tropical by 72 h and a remnant low by 96 h. The forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance for the first 36 h and near the intensity consensus for the rest of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 17.4N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 18.1N 107.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 19.0N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 20.6N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 22.2N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 132 WTPZ31 KNHC 011438 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS RAINBANDS AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 105.9W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 105.9 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, Flossie should move away from southwestern Mexico today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning, and Flossie could become a major hurricane tonight or Wednesday morning. Steady to rapid weakening is expected starting late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, for the next several hours. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS RAINBANDS AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 17.4, -105.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 663 WTPZ21 KNHC 011437 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 105.9W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....105NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 105.9W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.1N 107.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 108.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 110.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.2N 113.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 105.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 11:32:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 09:21:36 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin around 150 miles
offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 11:32:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 09:21:36 GMT

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 17.1, -105.6 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 600 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 083 WTPZ31 KNHC 011131 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 600 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...FLOSSIE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 105.6W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.6 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with a slight decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Flossie should move farther away from southwestern Mexico today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (145 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, with weakening starting by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, through this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 17.1, -105.6 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:49:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 09:21:36 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:49:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:49:38 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:49:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:49:38 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 05:46:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:21:44 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010847 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 Flossie continues to strengthen early this morning, evident by an expanding central dense overcast (CDO) over the low-level center of the cyclone. A couple recent scatterometer passes at 0337z and 0428z helped in locating the center underneath the CDO, and assisted with the refinement of the 34 and 50 knot wind radii. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in at T4.0/65 knots from both SAB and TAFB. The objective intensity estimates ranged from 69 to 79 knots at 06z. Based on a blend of these estimates, and taking into account the improved satellite presentation during the past few hours, the initial intensity has been raised to 75 knots for this advisory. Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This motion is expected to continue during the next several days with a slight decrease in forward speed, as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the northwest of the system. The track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with a blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus aids as well as the latest EC-AIFS run. The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 28/29C, abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 40 percent chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official forecast reflects this. Rapid weakening will then begin by 48 hours as Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins to entrain dry mid-level air. The system is forecast to become a post-tropical low by 72 hours and a remnant low at 96 hours. The intensity forecast is on the high end of the intensity aids, closest to SHIPS and NNIC. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 16.9N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 17.5N 106.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 18.4N 107.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 20.0N 110.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 20.9N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 21.9N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/0600Z 23.7N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 24.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Jelsema

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 547 FOPZ11 KNHC 010844 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 1 6( 7) 57(64) 25(89) 3(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 33(55) 5(60) X(60) X(60) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 25(29) 20(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 178 WTPZ31 KNHC 010844 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 105.1W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 105.1 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with a slight decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Flossie should move farther away from southwestern Mexico today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, with weakening starting by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, through this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 16.9, -105.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.