2 weeks 2 days ago
...FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 5:00 PM MST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 17.9, -107.1 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012337
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple hundred
miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.
South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 21:21:33 GMT
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 21:21:31 GMT
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 280
WTPZ41 KNHC 012032
TCDEP1
Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025
Flossie continues to intensify this afternoon, with deep cold
convection wrapping around the eyewall. GOES satellite visible
imagery shows an eye has been trying to clear out and warm
throughout the day. The latest subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates are between 90-95 kt. Based on the latest trends
and these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this
advisory.
The initial motion is 300/9 kt. A general west-northwest to
northwestward motion is forecast over the next few days as Flossie
moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. As the system
begins to weaken, a more westward motion is anticipated as the storm
is steered by the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast
track lies near the previous, which is near the HCCA corrected
consensus.
Flossie will remain in a favorable environment, with warm SSTs,
plentiful moisture, and weak wind shear for the next 12-24 hours.
Along the forecast track the system will be moving into increasingly
cooler SSTs and drier air in about 24 h. The latest NHC forecast is
for some additional strengthening in the short term, which is above
all available guidance. Afterwards, Flossie is expected to rapidly
weaken, with the system becoming post-tropical by 72 h, and a
remnant low by 96 h and dissipated by day 5. The latest NHC
intensity forecast remains at the high end of the guidance in the
short term, before trending towards the consensus aids as the system
weakens.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy
rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán,
Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is
possible.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next few
hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 17.7N 106.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 526
WTPZ31 KNHC 012032
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025
...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 106.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Watches for the southwestern coast of Mexico.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 106.7 West. Flossie is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion is anticipated during the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today and tonight.
By Wednesday, steady to rapid weakening is expected.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches,
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima,
and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area for the next few hours.
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM MST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 17.7, -106.7 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 012032
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 3 76(79) 17(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
20N 110W 50 X 29(29) 48(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
20N 110W 64 X 10(10) 35(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 17(19) 18(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 240
WTPZ21 KNHC 012031
TCMEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.7W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 75SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.7W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.5W
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 106.7W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 17:45:02 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 15:21:56 GMT
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 17:45:02 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 15:21:56 GMT
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF FLOSSIE BRUSHING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM CST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 17.5, -106.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 944
WTPZ31 KNHC 011744
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
1200 PM CST Tue Jul 01 2025
...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF FLOSSIE BRUSHING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 106.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...700 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 106.5 West. Flossie is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general
northwestward to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in
forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast
track, Flossie should move away from southwestern Mexico today and
tonight.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through
Wednesday morning, and Flossie could become a major hurricane
tonight or Wednesday morning. Steady to rapid weakening is expected
starting late Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches,
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima,
and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, for the next
few hours.
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 17:45:02 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 15:21:56 GMT
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF FLOSSIE BRUSHING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM CST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 17.5, -106.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
651
ABPZ20 KNHC 011733
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin around 180 miles
offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.
South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 14:40:56 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 15:21:56 GMT
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 14:40:56 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 14:40:56 GMT
NHC Webmaster
2 weeks 2 days ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 059
FOPZ11 KNHC 011438
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
P VALLARTA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 110W 34 1 27(28) 57(85) 8(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
20N 110W 50 X 3( 3) 45(48) 15(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) 25(25) 13(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 6( 7) 27(34) 8(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NHC Webmaster
Checked
5 years 9 months ago
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
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