National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 042035 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 The wind circulation associated with the low pressure area east of the coast of north Florida has become stronger, with aircraft and scatterometer data indicating a well-defined circulation with maximum winds near 30 kt and a radius of maximum wind of about 80-90 n mi. The system has also developed persistent convection east and southeast of the center. Based on these developments, advisories are being started on Tropical Depression Three. The cyclone is currently being affected by 20-25 kt of southwesterly shear caused by a mid- to upper-level trough not far to the west. The initial motion is uncertain due to some reformation of the center, with the best estimate of 360/2 kt. During the next 24 h, the cyclone should move slowly north-northwestward on the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered northward with a gradual increase in forward speed. This motion should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. A generally northward motion should then continue until the system dissipates over land. While the guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there is considerable spread in both the forecast direction and speed, with the HWRF being a notable right outlier. The forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS and the HCCA corrected consensus model. The current shear is expected to diminish on Saturday as the upper-level trough moves westward away from the cyclone and the upper-level winds become southerly. However, the upper-level winds are forecast to become convergent, which may limit the amount of convection the system produces. Most of the guidance shows some development as the system approaches the coast, so the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening to a tropical storm before the cyclone makes landfall. This forecast is a little below the intensity consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash flooding from Saturday through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the Carolinas. 3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 30.8N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 31.3N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 31.7N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 32.4N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 33.7N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 07/0600Z 35.0N 79.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2025 093 FONT13 KNHC 042034 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 13(14) 15(29) 6(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 12(13) 13(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 460 WTNT33 KNHC 042034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 79.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Little River Inlet, South Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for portions of this area later tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 79.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion toward the north-northwest is expected through Saturday, followed by a motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Saturday or early Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas Saturday through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of onshore flow. SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 the center of Three was located near 30.8, -79.0 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2025 737 WTNT23 KNHC 042033 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.0W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.0W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.3N 79.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 31.7N 79.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.4N 80.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.7N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.0N 79.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 79.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041705
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that the system located about 150 miles
off the northeast Florida coast has become better defined today with
an area of strong winds located on its east side. Showers and
thunderstorms are also persisting near and to the east of the
center. A short-lived subtropical or tropical depression could
form later today or on Saturday while the system drifts generally
north-northwestward. This low is expected to move inland over the
southeastern U.S. by early Sunday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route, and the data they collect
should provide more details on the system's structure. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and
across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on
Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

647
ABNT20 KNHC 041153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an area
of low pressure located about 100 miles off the northeast Florida
coast. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally
conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical or
subtropical depression could form late today or on Saturday while
the system drifts northward. This low is expected to move inland
over the southeastern U.S. Saturday night or early Sunday.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across
portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early
Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning
later on Saturday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an area
of low pressure located about 100 miles off the northeast Florida
coast. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally
conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical or
subtropical depression could form late today or on Saturday while
the system drifts northward. This low is expected to move inland
over the southeastern U.S. Saturday night or early Sunday.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across
portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early
Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning
later on Saturday. In addition, An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

448
ABNT20 KNHC 040504
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that a weak area of low pressure has
formed about 100 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, and is
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for further
development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form
near the southeastern United States late today or over the weekend
if the low remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and
southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal
sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

917
ABNT20 KNHC 032332
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the Florida
Peninsula eastward to the adjacent waters of the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean are associated with a weak surface trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical
depression could form in this region over the weekend while the
system drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and
across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on
Saturday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a weakening
frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the
southeastern United States on Friday or Saturday. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow
development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in
this region over the weekend or early next week while the system
drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S.,
particularly across the west-central Florida coast. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system on Friday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

018
ABNT20 KNHC 031131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a weakening
frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the
southeastern United States by Saturday. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow
development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in
this region over the weekend or early next week while the system
drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S.,
particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030524
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a weakening
frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the
southeastern United States by early this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow
development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in
this region over the weekend or early next week while the system
drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S.,
particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022326
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure could develop along a weakening frontal
boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the southeastern
United States by this weekend. Environmental conditions appear
only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical
or subtropical depression could form in this region over the
weekend or early next week while the system drifts northward or
northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across
the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

843
ABNT20 KNHC 021720
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S.
Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal
boundary. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive
for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression
could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while
the system drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the
southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

244
ABNT20 KNHC 021133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S.
Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal
boundary. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive
for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression
could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while
the system moves little. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly
across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020536
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S.
Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal
boundary. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive
for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression
could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while
the system moves little. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly
across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

713
ABNT20 KNHC 012343
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S.
Atlantic or Gulf coasts over the weekend along a weakening front.
Although significant development is not anticipated, a tropical or
subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or
early next week while the system drifts and moves little. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the
southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

274
ABNT20 KNHC 011715
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast
U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop
from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off
the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some
gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter
as the low drifts and moves little. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S.,
particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Churchill