National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a trough of
low pressure. Gradual development of this system is anticipated
during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

105
ABPZ20 KNHC 051138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated
with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
anticipated during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050555
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a trough
of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico. Gradual development of this system is anticipated during the
next few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042315
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
anticipated during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
expected to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041706
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern and southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of
this system is expected during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

852
ABPZ20 KNHC 041145
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041145
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

857
ABPZ20 KNHC 032327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie, located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie, located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 20:31:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 21:21:35 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 20:31:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 20:31:07 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032030 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 Flossie has lacked organized deep convection for more than 12 hours and no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone. Therefore, the system is now considered a post-tropical low, and this is the last NHC advisory. A 1705 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to around 35 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is moving northwestward at 9 kt. This general motion, within the low-level flow, is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A combination of cool waters and dry air should lead to the dissipation of the post-tropical low this weekend. For additional information on the post-tropical low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 21.2N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 24.1N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 032029 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 032029 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.4W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.4W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 112.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.1N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 112.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON FLOSSIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 032029 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 ...FLOSSIE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 112.4W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 112.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued steady weakening is expected, and the post-tropical low is forecast to dissipate this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the post-tropical low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...FLOSSIE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM MST Thu Jul 03 the center of Flossie was located near 21.2, -112.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple of
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 14:36:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 15:22:15 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 14:36:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 14:36:15 GMT