National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 121431 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 112.2W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 112.2W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.2N 113.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.9N 116.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.4N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121110
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Henriette, located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located just over
1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later
this week while the system moves west- northwestward at around 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 08:37:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 09:24:26 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 120836 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120836 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Deep convection has continued to burst over the western portion of the cyclone overnight. Although the system is sheared with the center located near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, a couple of ASCAT passes have shown a very small area of 30-35 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the circulation. These winds extend no more than about 15-20 n mi from the center, but based on these data the initial wind speed has been increased to 35 kt. Henriette becomes the eighth named storm in the eastern Pacific basin this season. The ASCAT data also assisted in locating the center this morning, and recent fixes show that Henriette continues to move west- northwestward or 295/12 kt. The tropical storm should move west-northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. As Henriette weakens, it is likely to turn westward within the low-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory through 36 hours, but has been adjusted southward at 48 hours to be closer to the various consensus aids. Henriette is not anticipated to strengthen much more. Although the system is predicted to remain over warm waters and within an area of light to moderate northeasterly shear today, nearby dry mid-level air is likely to prevent significant strengthening. By Tuesday morning, Henriette will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable airmass. This should lead to weakening, and the cyclone is predicted to degenerate into a remnant low within 48 hours, with dissipation occurring shortly thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 19.5N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 20.2N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 21.0N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 21.7N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 120835 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 ...HENRIETTE FORMS BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 110.9W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 110.9 West. Henriette is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday, and Henriette is predicted to become a remnant low by Tuesday night. Henriette is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...HENRIETTE FORMS BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TUESDAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 the center of Henriette was located near 19.5, -110.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 120835 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 110.9W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 110.9W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.2N 112.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.0N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.7N 116.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120516
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Nine-E, located a few hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
nearly 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form later this week while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120251 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past several days has finally developed a well-defined surface circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. A late-arriving 1716Z ASCAT-C scatterometer pass indicated the surface wind field was possibly closed at that time, but since then deep convection with tops of -75C to -80C have persisted near and to the west of the mid-level circulation center, suggesting that a low-level center has likely closed off now. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 30-31 kt winds indicated in the aforementioned scatterometer data. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 295/12 kt, based primarily on scatterometer and passive microwave fixes. The small cyclone is expected to move west-northwestward around the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 3 days until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast lies near the southern portion of the guidance envelope, between the TVCE consensus model and the ECMWF-ensemble mean model. The small cyclone only has about 36 hours to strengthen before the system moves over sub-26 deg C SSTs. The shear is forecast to be low at less than 10 kt for the next 72 hours or so, even decreasing to near 5 kt in 24-36 h, which would normally result in significant development. However, intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air are expected to disrupt the typical intensification process, thus only modest strengthening is forecast through 36 h, after which much cooler waters will induce a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 18.9N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 19.4N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 21.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 22.1N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z 23.7N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 02:49:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 03:24:28 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 120248 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 27 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 120248 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 109.8W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 109.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening will be possible for the next day or so, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Monday. Weakening is expected on Tuesday and the system forecast to become a remnant low by late Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 the center of Nine-E was located near 18.9, -109.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 120247 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.4N 111.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.3N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.1N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.7N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112342
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated near the center
of a small low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Satellite images
also indicate that the low is gradually becoming better defined. If
this recent development trend continues, then advisories could be
initiated on a tropical depression or a tropical storm later tonight
while the disturbance moves generally west-northwestward, away from
the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for significant development by early Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

An area of disturbed weather located about 1000 miles southwest of
the Baja California peninsula remains disorganized. Environmental
conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for
tropical cyclone formation by the middle of the week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112159
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
300 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low-pressure system south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located
a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula have become a little better organized during the past
several hours. In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind
data indicate that the low has become better defined, with winds
just below tropical-storm strength occurring near and to the east
of the center. If this recent development trend continues, then
advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression or a tropical
storm later this evening while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for significant
development on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A disturbance located a little less than 1000 miles southwest of the
Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle
of the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some development
of this system is possible over the next day or so while it moves
west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico. Thereafter,
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A disturbance located a little less than 1000 miles southwest of the
Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle
of the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the
next day or so as it moves west-northwestward, away from the coast
of Mexico. Thereafter, conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
are associated with a trough of low pressure. Development of this
system is no longer expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...0 percent.

A disturbance located little a less than 1000 miles south-southwest
of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation
by the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 110500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the
southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low
pressure. This system has not become any better organized since
yesterday, and the chances of tropical cyclone formation are
diminishing. The disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward
just off the southwestern coast of Mexico bringing locally heavy
rainfall along portions of that area during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is already merging with the
disturbance to its north. Development of this system is becoming
less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A disorganized area of disturbed weather continues to be located a
little less than 1000 miles south-southwest of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle next week as
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila